Solar Lease vs Buy Calculator

Solar Lease vs Buy in 2026: What the OBBBA Tax Credit Changes Mean for You

The 30% Credit Shift — Why It Matters More Than Ever

Post-OBBBA, the residential 25D credit (the one buyers claim) is on a phaseout timeline: the full 30% remains available for systems placed in service through roughly 2027, then steps down before expiring by about 2030. Meanwhile, the business-side 48E Clean Electricity Investment Credit stays at 30% for the entities that own the equipment. That asymmetry matters. Because installers can claim 48E on every system they own, they have a strong financial incentive to steer homeowners toward leases and PPAs — those arrangements let the installer capture the 30% themselves. This creates a persistent information gap: many homeowners sign a lease never realizing that doing so hands away thousands of dollars in direct, claimable tax benefits. The calculator above attributes the credit explicitly under each model so there are no surprises at tax time.

When a Lease or PPA Actually Makes Sense

Leases and PPAs aren't inherently bad — they're just a different trade. They can be the right call when (1) you have minimal federal tax liability and couldn't use the 30% credit anyway, since a credit you can't absorb is worth $0; (2) you want genuinely zero upfront cost and zero maintenance responsibility, with the installer handling inverter swaps and repairs; or (3) you plan to move within roughly 10 years, though lease assumption by a buyer can be difficult and sometimes kills a home sale. The break-even figures above show your personal tipping point under each scenario. Use them, not a salesperson's pitch, to decide.

The Hidden Cost of Lease Escalators

Most PPAs carry an annual escalator around 2.9%, meaning your per-kWh payment climbs every single year. A payment that starts at $150/month grows past $300/month by the end of the term. Compare that to a cash purchase or a paid-off loan, where your ongoing energy cost is effectively fixed at $0 — just sunlight. This calculator models escalators accurately, so watch the lease line in the chart above: it often starts as the cheapest option and then flattens or dips over time as the escalator eats into your savings. That crossover is the single most important number in any lease-versus-buy decision.